And the Oscar goes to...
February 24, 2010
AND THE OSCAR GOES TO …
Up until now movie fans have formed strong opinions based on the New
York Film Critics, The LA Film Critics, The National Board of Review, The
SAG Awards, The Directors Guild, and the Golden Globe Award winners.
Now ... we have come to the moment of truth!
The Academy Awards Ceremony is upon us. On Sunday night March 7th ,
movie history will be made. Will Avatar, The Hurt Locker, or Inglourious
Basterds join the ranks of such greats as Gone with the Wind, Bridge on the
River Kwai, Ben Hur, West Side Story, Laurence of Arabia, Patton, Gandhi,
The Last Emperor, Dances with Wolves, Schindlers List, The English
Patient, Titanic, Shakespeare in Love, Lord of the Rings, Return of the King,
and Slumdog Millionaire? These films represent the winningest movies in
Oscar history. Each one of them won 7 or more Oscars. In 1959 Ben Hur
held the record for most Oscars (11), until Titanic tied it in 1997. In 2003
Lord of the Rings, Return of the King became only the third film to earn 11 .
In 1961, West Side Story won 10. This year (2009), Avatar and The Hurt
Locker qualify to join this group by being nominated for 9 Oscars each.
Inglourious Basterds was nominated for 8. Very, very, very rarely in
Academy Award history has a film woh Best Picture without being
nominated for the most Oscars. Most recently Million Dollar Baby (2003)
beat out The Aviator.
So . . the question comes down to will one of these 3 movies dominate and
create a landslide or will the Academy voters spread the wealth?
I predict that Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) will easily win Best Actor. .. and he
deserves it! As I referenced in my review of this film the veteran actor's
performance is unforgettable.
Unfortunately, Sandra Bullock is going the win Best Actress for The Blind
Side. I say . . unfortunately .. . because in my opinion, she does not deserve
it. Carrie Mulligan (An Education) gave a much more impactful
performance, but she is too young and too unfamiliar with most voters to
have a chance. My vote would go to the veteran, Helen Mirren (The Last
Station), playing Leo Tolstoy'S wife. Working against Mirren is that she
just won Best Actress 2 years ago for The Queen. Another factor in
Bullock's favor. . is that she is extremely popular in Hollywood. She has a
reputation for being known as a very down to earth nice person .. . a persona
that is not necessarily common in Hollywood. Throughout the years I have
questioned Bullock's acting ability but unfortunately throughout history, in
certain categories .. .it can become a "popularity contest". I give you John
Wayne for True Grit and Paul Newman for The Color of Money as just 2
examples of the many times this has happened.
Both the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories are very easy to
predict. Best Supporting Actor will deservingly go to Christoph Waltz for
Inglorious Basterds. Woody Harrelson chose the wrong year to make The
Messenger. Christopher Plummer also could have won for his lifetime body
of work in The Last Station, if not for Waltz's unbelievable performance.
As I have expressed in a previous review, Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
was good .. not great. Matt Damon (Invictus) .. should not have even been
nominated. His nomination denied Alfred Molina (Au Education) for a
deserving nod. But. . the bottom line is ... Waltz will win and should win for
his convincing performance as the Waffen SS Nazi detective.
Equally deserving . . .is Monique' for Best Supporting Actress. She is a shoe
in to win in this category for her powerful and convincing performance as
the evil and pathetic mother in Precious. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick
will cancel each other out in Up In the Air. Penelope Cruz just won this
category last year and as good as Maggie Gyllenhaal was in Crazy Heart . .
nobody compares to Monique' in this category.
My prediction is that Quentin Tarantino will win a writing Oscar in the Best
Original Screenplay category for his Inglourious Basterds. He won a writing
Oscar back in the 90's for Pulp Fiction but did not win that year for Best
Director nor did that movie win Best Picture.
My prediction is that the same results will occur this year. I should add that
if I had a vote, I'd be hard pressed to not vote for Inglourious Basterds to
win Best Picture. I've seen this movie 5 times already, and I can honestly
say I'm anxious to see it again.
Up in the Air will win Best Adapted Screenplay. It's the "chic' pick. Early
on this film was the popular choice for Best Picture when awards season
came upon us. It represents a sign of the times and is . . in my opinion ..
. splendidly written. There are 2 other reasons why I think Up in the Air will
win in this category. One is of the 6 Oscars this film was nominated for, this
will be the one category the Academy can legitimately acknowledge it in.
The other reason is that I do not feel Up in the Air has much competition in
this category.
I predict Avatar will win Art Direction, Cinematography, Best Original
Score, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing.
Two categories that Avatar will not win in ... are Best Film Editing, and Best
Director. As I mentioned earlier, Avatar and The Hurt Locker lead all
movies with 9 nominations. These 2 categories are where the Academy can
acknowledge the present day war film. It's difficult for me to confirm that
Kathryn Bigelow deserves Best Director over her ex-husband,James
Cameron. But. .. again ... this is how the Academy can acknowledge The
Hurt Locker and make Bigelow a part of Academy Awards history. By
voting her in as Best Director, she will become the very first woman to win
in this category ... and what makes her accomplishment unique is that she is
also the very first woman to direct a brutally and bloody war film.
Lastly, it's very rare that the Academy will vote a movie in as Best Picture ..
without it's Director winning the Best Director Award. If you go back a
research you will see this occurs on the average of about once in every 8-10
years. It happened most recently in 2005 when Crash won Best Picture but
Ang Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain. It also happened in
2002 when Chicago won Best Picture but it's Director Rob Marshall was
beaten out for Best Director by Roman Polanski for The Pianist. In 1998,
Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture ... but Steven Spielberg won Best
Director for Saving Private Ryan. And .. in 1989 . . Driving Miss Daisy won
Best Picture but Oliver Stone won Best Director for Born on the Fourth of
July. Another factor that will free the conscience of voters is that Avatar
Director, James Cameron . . has previously won Best Director and Best
Picture for Titanic. If that were not the case, there is no way in my opinion
that they could not vote for Cameron as Best Director.
As I reviewed previously ... Avatar .. .is the most visually astounding movie
I have ever seen! It has ... and will ... revolutionize filmmaking for years to
come. Therefore I predict this box office blockbuster will win Best Picture
and a total of 7 Oscars, putting it in the category of all of the great films I
referenced at the beginning of this entry. One final bit of history . . very
rarely has a movie won Best Picture without being nominated in one of the
writing categories. Not only is that the case this year with Avatar, but it was
also the case with Cameron's Titanic back in 1997.
So .. grab your popcorn . .. and enjoy the show!!!!
Love ya' CLEVELAND!
